In January, Canada's largest banks set aside $2.5 billion in provisions for credit losses (PCLs) to cover an expected wave of loan defaults. This is compared to a year earlier, when they totalled just $373 million.
So for the average business owner on main street, in factories, production plants, and retail locations around the country, what does this increase at the banks mean to your ability to conduct business as usual?
Capital that has been readily available to grow a business will dry up
Credit will tighten and become only available to well-healed or investment-grade companies.
Start-Ups will have to self-fund or prepare for significantly higher rates
There will be closures in the fintech arena as they are unprepared to offset the bad loans issued during the past 0% rate environment.
Existing lines of credit may have lending limits reduced or withdrawn.
Tips To Get Through a Recession
Become a cash-flow fanatic – If you are used to reviewing your financials monthly or quarterly. It’s time to step up that review to identify potential problems before they become real problems. Use the information to make strategic decisions, all with an eye toward the preservation of capital.
Monitor Accounts Receivable – In an uncertain economy, it becomes increasingly important to strengthen cash positions. Therefore, it’s time to increase efforts to reduce the outstanding receivables and work with clients to get paid before they become uncollectable and written off.
Minimize Inventory Levels – If your warehouse is full of unsold inventory, it’s time to gather your marketing team to find the solution and turn the stock into cash. The last thing you want is to carry the high cost of warehousing into a recession.
Hire cautiously or not at all – In a market where so many companies are laying off, use that as a leading indicator and hire sparingly and only if there are no other alternatives. Instead, use freelancers, independent contractors, or outsourcing to reputable providers.
Increase Margins – Once you have reduced all overhead expenses and increased efficiencies. It could be the time to consider increasing your margins for an immediate boost in net profit and cash flow. Caution- It is difficult to raise prices in a recession; exploring the potential to reduce supply chain costs to expand margins may be a better idea.
Analyze pricing strategies and product mix – There is traditionally a heightened demand for essential goods and services in a recession. There is also downward pricing pressure that should be anticipated and mitigated. Be open to innovation and ways to leverage existing clients to provide them with additional products or services you are able.
Establish relationships with multiple suppliers – In case one of your primary suppliers’ stumbles, it is wise to ensure you have other sources so their problem doesn’t become yours.
Draw down on available lines of credit – It is not uncommon to see banks reduce access to a LOC, lower available limits, or freeze funds altogether. Therefore, it is wise to draw down on open lines and keep the cash in a separate account, so it is there when needed.
PRESERVE CASH AND LEASE NEW EQUIPMENT – If you need to replace, upgrade or add new equipment, a sound cash management strategy suggests using equipment leasing versus using cash to fund the acquisition of needed equipment.
Conclusion
If you believe this economy is moving into rough waters, prudence would dictate that any business owner, large or small, look at their organization and make adjustments to protect the franchise.